Fund programs: Key Project of Health Commission of Anhui Province (No. AHWJ2023A10152)
Authors:Zhu Biao, Zhu Meng, Gong Lei, Li Shuwen, Wu Jiabing, Zhu Qingqing
Keywords:influenza; moving epidemic method; threshold; early warning; intensity grading; winter and spring
DOI:专辑:医药卫生科技
〔Abstract〕 Objective To develop an early - warning approach for influenza in Anhui Province using the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM), offering a scientific basis for influenza prevention and control in the province. Methods Based on the surveillance data reported weekly by influenza sentinel hospitals and network laboratories in the “China Influenza Surveillance Information System”, the weekly influenza virus detection positive rate (positive rate, PR) across the province was analyzed. The MEM was used to estimate the epidemic threshold and classification intensity threshold of influenza in Anhui Province before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, respectively. The early warning effect of the MEM was evaluated using cross-validation. Results Epidemic and graded intensity thresholds of influenza were derived using PR and MEM. Prior to the COVID - 19 pandemic, the starting, medium - intensity, high - intensity, extremely - high - intensity, and ending thresholds of influenza epidemics were 17.08%, 38.47%, 53.20%, 59.71%, and 12.34% respectively. At this point, the model exhibited sensitivity of 0.98, specificity of 0.86, Matthews Correlation Coefficient of 0.84, and Youden Index of 0.84. After the COVID - 19 pandemic, these thresholds were 25.61%, 43.81%, 63.29%, 74.46%, and 17.82% respectively. At this point, the model demonstrates sensitivity of 0.86, specificity of 0.92, Matthews Correlation Coefficient of 0.78, and Youden Index of 0.77. Conclusion MEM shows good applicability in estimating the epidemic and graded intensity thresholds of influenza during the winter and spring in Anhui Province. Both the influenza epidemic threshold and graded intensity thresholds after the COVID- 19 pandemic are higher than those before the pandemic.