Development of nomogram model to predict the risk of coronary atherosclerosis based on hematological indicators and carotid plaque

Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui 2021 09 v.56 1464-1469     font:big middle small

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Authors:Ye Ruirui; Li Jiehua

Keywords:coronary atherosclerosis;carotid plaque;nomogram;prognosis model

DOI:10.19405/j.cnki.issn1000-1492.2021.09.022

〔Abstract〕 Objective To analyze the risk factors of coronary atherosclerosis(CAS),and combine hematological indicators and carotid artery plaque to form a new nomogram model to further predict the risk of CAS. Methods This study is a retrospective case-control study.147 patients with suspected coronary artery disease(CAD) were selected from the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University.Based on the results of coronary CT angiography(coronary CTA),they were divided into non-CAS group(50 cases) and CAS group(97 cases).Color Doppler ultrasound was used to measure the carotid artery intima-media thickness(cIMT) and plaque,and the results of blood routine test,basic blood chemistry test and coagulation test were collected. Nomogram was used to enstablish the prediction model,and the prognostic value was validated by ROC curve. Results There were differences of age,gender,smoking history and hypertension between the non-CAS group and the CAS group. The red blood cell distribution width-SD value(RDW-SD) of the CAS group,cystatin C,creatinine,fasting plasma glucose,the neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio(NLR),carotid plaque,and cIMT in CAS group were significantly higher than those in the nonCAS group,and the lymphocyte in CAS group was lower than that in non-CAS group(P<0. 05). Multivariate binary logistic regression analysis found that the factors of men,carotid plaque,elevated RDW-SD,elevated fasting plasma glucose and decreased lymphocyte count were independent risk factors for the occurrence of CAS(P<0. 05).Based on the above five indicators,a new nomogram was generated to predict the risk of CAS. The total points of the new nomogram could effectively predict the risk of CAS(AUC: 0. 870,95% CI: 0. 805-0. 936,Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0. 553). Conclusion This study established a new type of nomogram to predict the risk of CAS. By analyzing the patients' hematological indicators and carotid plaque,the risk of CAS can be accurately predicted to provide guidance for clinical diagnosis and treatment.