Establishment of a nomogram for predicting the risk of 1-year death after coronary intervention in patients with acute myocardial infarction

Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui 2020 12 v.55 1959-1963     font:big middle small

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Authors:Ye Qing; Ma Likun; Zhang Jie

Keywords:acute myocardial infarction;coronary intervention;death;influencing factors;nomogram

DOI:10.19405/j.cnki.issn1000-1492.2020.12.028

〔Abstract〕 To collect the clinical data of 306 patients with acute myocardial infarction(AMI) and the occurrence of death during 1 year follow-up. The raw data were randomly divided into modeling group and validation group according to the scale of 7 ∶3. The modeling group used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO) regression and Logistic regression to screen the risk predictors of death at 1 year after operation to construct a nomogram model. The validation group used receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC) curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow deviation test to evaluate the prediction efficiency of the nomogram model. The number of lesions, cystatin C, and left ventricular ejection fraction(LVEF) was the influencing factors of death at 1 year after operation in patients with AMI. The area under the ROC curve of the nomogram model for predicting the risk of death was 0.824(0.621~1.000)(P<0.05), and the Hosmer-Lemeshow deviation test result was χ2=6.090(P=0.637), suggesting that the nomogram model had good discrimination and calibration, and could be used to predict the risk of 1 year postoperative death in patients with AMI.