Analysis of the incidence and mortality trends of type 2 diabetic nephropathy in China from 1990 to 2021

Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui     font:big middle small

Found programs: National Natural Science Foundation of China(No. 82104748); Science and Technology Re- search Project of Henan Province(No. 242102311282);Cultivation Project of Henan University of Chinese Medi- cine(No. MP2024-37)

Authors:Dou Xuewei,Cui Wenfei,Niu Ling,Yin Binglei,Wang Jinjin

Keywords:type 2 diabetic kidney disease;burden of disease;Joinpoint regression model;age-period-cohort model;incidence;mortality

DOI:10.19405/j.cnki.issn1000-1492.2026.01.027

〔Abstract〕 To analyze the long-term trend of incidence and mortality of type 2 diabetic kidney disease (DKD)in China from 1990 to 2021. Methods The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the average an- nual percentage change( AAPC )of standardized incidence rate and standardized mortality rate ,and the age- period-cohort(APC)model was constructed to analyze the longitudinal age change,period and cohort effect risk ra- tio(RR). Results From 1990 to 2021,the standardized incidence rate of type 2 DKD in males and females showed an overall upward trend,with AAPC of 0. 08% and 0. 36%,respectively. The age-standardized mortality rate of the total population and female showed a downward trend,with AAPC of -0. 61% and -1. 03%,respec- tively. However,there was no significant difference in males. APC model showed that the age effect existed:the peak age was 75-79 years old,the mortality rate of females increased,and the mortality rate of males decreased af- ter 80-84 years old. For the effect of time period,the risk of type 2 DKD incidence in females in 2017-2021 was 1. 05 times that in 2002-2006,and the risk of death in males and females in 2017-2021 was 0. 84 and 0. 71 times that in 2002-2006,respectively. For cohort effects,the highest risk of disease was seen in men and women born in 1967-1971,and the highest risk of death was seen in men born in 1952-1956 and women born in 1912-1916. Con ⁃ clusion From 1990 to 2021,the standardized incidence rate of type 2 DKD in China shows an upward trend,and the standardized mortality rate shows a downward trend. It is necessary to strengthen the health behavior publicity and education of type 2 DKD,and actively carry out early screening to reduce the disease burden.