〔Abstract〕 Objective To explore correlation analysis between movement function and early simple motions in stroke patients' upper limbs at different periods and probability of predictive motion. Methods 102 patients with firstly stroke was observed whether they could perform active finger extension, shoulder abduction and shrug on the 3 rd, 5 th, 7 th, 9 th, and 15 th day after onset. The recovery of upper limb motor function was assessed with action research arm test(ARAT), the modified Barthel index(MBI) and the Fugl-Meyer upper limb subtest(FMA-UE) respectively in the 1 st,3 rd,6 th month after the onset. Results (1) Pearson correlation analysis showed that FE,SA,SS were correlated with ARAT,MBI,FMA-UE(Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.757～0.913,P<0.001).(2) Multiple linear regression showed that SA and SS had no correlation with ARAT, MBI, FMA-UE(P>0.05). There was a correlation between FE of the 3 rd and 5 th day and ARAT, MBI, FMA-UE at the 1 st month after onset(P<0.01); there was a correlation between ARAT and MBI in the 3 th month(P<0.05). FE after 7 th day after the onset was related to ARAT and MBI at 1 st, 3 th and 6 th month(P<0.05), but it was not related to FMA-UE at 3 th and 6 th month(P>0.05).(3) Binary Logistic regression showed that the probability of recovering a certain sensitivity in movement function at 6 th month was 98% in patients with FE of 7 th, and the probability of patients without FE recovering a certain sensitivity in movement function at 6 th month was 38%. The probability of recovering a certain sensitivity in movement function at 6 th month was still 98% in patients who developed FE on 15 th day, but the probability of recovering a certain sensitivity in movement function at 6 th month was 28% in patients without FE. Conclusion (1) SA and SS cannot be used as predictors of motor function after stroke.(2) FE after 7 th days after the onset can be used as a predictor of short, medium and long-term motor function recovery(ARAT, MBI) of affected upper limb in patients with stroke.(3) The later the FE appears on the affected side, the lower the probability of recovery of motor function.