Stablish prognostic nomogram of colon cancer nomograms:a retrospective study based on the SEER database

Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui 2021 02 v.56 299-305     font:big middle small

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Authors:Huang Kai; Zhang Changle; Wu Wenyong

Keywords:colon cancer;feature selection;nomogram;prognosis;survival analysis

DOI:10.19405/j.cnki.issn1000-1492.2021.02.024

〔Abstract〕 Objective To analyze the prognosis of patients with colon cancer risk factors,constructs the nomogram prediction of colon cancer patients 1 year,3 years and 5 years survival rate and to analyze clinical benefit. Methods A total of 53 753 colon cancer patients with pathologically confirmed between 2010 and 2015 were obtained from the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results(SEER) program.All samples were randomly divided into training(n=35 835) and validation(n=17 918) set based on the prognosis status and overall survival time.Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed using Cox proportional hazards regression model to evaluate the prognostic value of 9 clinical parametersincluding age,pathological stage,AJCC 7 th edition T stage,N stage,M stage,positive lymph node ratio(LNR),tissue grade,gender,and chemotherapy.The stepwise regression method was used to identify the potential prognostic risk parameters and a nomogram prognostic model was then established to predict the overall survival(OS).The internal and external calibration curve and decision curve analysis were conducted to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the nomogram. Results Age at diagnosis,T,N,M,LNR,tissue grade,gender and chemotherapy were identified as independent prognostic risk parameters of OS based on the training set in both univariate and multivariate analysis(P<0.01).Four clinical parameters including age,T stage,M stage and LNR were screened by stepwise regression analysis and a nomogram prognostic model was established based on the four factors.The average area under the curve(AUC) of ROC curves for 1-year,3-year and 5-year OS was 0.708(95%CI:0.669~0.753) in the training set and 0.704(95%CI:0.681~0.715) in the validation set.The calibration curve for probability of survival showed excellent consistency between nomogram prediction and actual observation in the entire set,with a bootstrap-corrected concordance index of 0.748(95%CI:0.741~0.755). Conclusion We successfully developed a nomogram incorporating four clinical parametersto predict overall survival of colon cancer patients after surgery resection,which showed better performance than the traditional TNM staging system.The established nomogram might help oncologist make appropriate treatment decisions for colon cancer patients.